The present disclosure relates to the field of computers, and specifically to the use of computers in providing services. Still more particularly, the present disclosure relates to the use of computers in facilitating service capacity when providing services.
Management of service capacity is often performed through the use of forecasts. These forecasts estimate how much capacity is needed at various points in a process that provides a particular service, and then locks in that capacity. Such forecasts are unable to account for random variability, which often leads to shortage or excess capacity. Furthermore, the longer it takes to adjust service capacity, the longer managers want the forecast horizon to be, which further decreases accuracy of the forecast. Thus, managing capacity based on forecasts is a vicious cycle.
Furthermore, forecast-based capacity management that is range-based (as opposed to the point forecast described above) requires a provider of the service to predict the maximum and minimum demand expected out to a specified time horizon, rather than predicting demand during individual periods within that horizon. The maximum allowable range is usually specified in a service contract with a customer, so neither party can specify an arbitrarily narrow or wide range. Thus, the service provider is obligated to satisfy demand only within the predicted limits, while the customer is obligated to compensate the service provider for excess capacity when demand falls below the minimum forecast. Therefore, both parties (customer and service provider) have an incentive to create an accurate forecast, which is inherently hard to do, so that both parties share the consequences of inaccurate forecasts.